Supporting Pension Pre-Calculation With Dynamic Microsimulation Technologies

Population ageing induces many challenges in the pension system of developed countries. It is necessary to support the decision-making processes regarding these challenges by forecasting different future scenarios. Long-term forecasts are required to understand the development process of the population and the pension system. The microsimulation approach has many benefits over other forecasting methods, though it requires high level of programing skills and significant computing capacity. Moreover, a long-term demographic microsimulation must be dynamic and it should preferably also include the relations between individuals. In this paper, we will introduce two different microsimulation based solutions for the abovementioned forecasting tasks. The first one is a complex model – aiming to forecast the Hungarian population – built in SAS, that can highlight the advantages of the microsimulation approach. The second solution is a Simulation Framework (written in C#), that aims to drastically reduce the difficulties regarding microsimulation using the findings of the SAS model. Our goal is to introduce our systems in the hope of future collaboration with economists and demographers.